Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8322…2810 other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$556 (-62%) realized −$551 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$527
finance 4% −$34
world 2% −$12
sports 2% +$16
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +50.7% +36.4% 62% 62% -25.4%
≤30d 11 +31.1% +18.6% 55% 55% -31.0%
≤90d 75 -24.1% -31.4% 32% 31% -68.0%
all 79 -22.2% -29.6% 32% 30% -68.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 30% -68.2%
10% -36.4% 30% -71.2%
15% -42.5% 30% -74.0%
20% -48.2% 27% -76.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$551
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)79 / 92
History coverage100d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 −$4 -73%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $332 −$330 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 $0 +49%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 28 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Apr 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $13 +$8 +65%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $16 +$15 +94%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Brentford FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1 +$4 +363%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $15 +$12 +79%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Port Vale FC end in a draw? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 21¢ $3 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 9¢ $2 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 17¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $3 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 16d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 19d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 29d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 42d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 42d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 42d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 19¢ $5 43d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.74 · official $15.74 · 285 history records