Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x8326…da54 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$233 (+2%) realized +$41 · open +$192
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,051
7 days−$429
14 days−$429
30 days−$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$421
other 22% +$678
world 1% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 33% -18.0%
≤30d 6 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 33% -18.0%
≤90d 6 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 33% -18.0%
all 29 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 52% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 52% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 41% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 38% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 34% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$339 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$482
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$192
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage587d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 96¢ $290 $482 +$192 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $199 −$199 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,552 −$1,552 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $508 +$342 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,039 +$1,220 +117%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,000 +$60 +6%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-19? Sep 11 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-19? Jan 19 $540 +$278 +52%
Will Ukraine beat Georgia? Nov 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Nov 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Germany beat Bosnia and Herzegovina? Nov 17 $8 +$1 +12%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Nov 17 $908 +$173 +19%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Nov 16 $83 −$83 -100%
76ers vs. Magic Nov 16 $440 −$440 -100%
Nets vs. Knicks Nov 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Nov 16 $165 +$125 +75%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Nov 16 $360 +$640 +178%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Nov 15 $128 −$128 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks Nov 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Commanders vs. Eagles Nov 15 $188 +$102 +54%
Clippers vs. Rockets Nov 15 $601 +$368 +61%
Hornets vs. Magic Nov 13 $797 +$280 +35%
Kings vs. Spurs Nov 12 $664 −$664 -100%
Nets vs. Pelicans Nov 12 $200 +$197 +98%
Wizards vs. Rockets Nov 12 $336 +$64 +19%
Giants vs. Panthers Nov 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10? Nov 11 $25 +$95 +376%
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10? Nov 11 $360 +$140 +39%
Celtics vs. Bucks Nov 11 $360 +$221 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $294 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 60¢ $304 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $508 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1,552 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $199 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $18 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $28 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $23 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $37 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $13 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $32 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $43 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $7 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $81 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $132 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $96 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $218 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $163 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,000 5d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-19? BUY No 28¢ $39 516d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.50 · official $482.50 (match) · 195 history records