Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8327…ef4a other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-20%) realized −$69 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$42
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$8
crypto 5% −$14
sports 3% −$6
world 2% −$10
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -16.3% -24.3% 30% 26% +2.4%
≤30d 34 -25.2% -32.3% 32% 29% -6.0%
≤90d 34 -25.2% -32.3% 32% 29% -6.0%
all 34 -25.2% -32.3% 32% 29% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 29% -6.0%
10% -38.8% 26% -15.0%
15% -44.7% 24% -23.2%
20% -50.1% 18% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)34 / 50
History coverage8d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $48 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $29 +$21 +70%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $21 +$161 +784%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$5 +55%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$14 +54%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $23 −$22 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $18 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$13 +124%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 43m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 43m
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 43m
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 4¢ $10 44m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 44h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 3d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.13 · official $155.84 · 78 history records