Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x8328…0a5c sports 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$552 (+3%) realized +$542 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%184W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$942
14 days+$1,085
30 days+$1,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$975
other 5% −$448
politics 1% −$44
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +88.8% +70.8% 58% 58% +92.5%
≤30d 45 +62.7% +47.2% 58% 58% +48.4%
≤90d 224 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 43% +1.3%
all 438 -2.8% -12.0% 42% 42% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 42% -7.7%
10% -20.4% 41% -16.5%
15% -28.1% 41% -24.6%
20% -35.2% 41% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$43 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$542
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses184 / 254
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions2
Markets (closed)438 / 440
History coverage254d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 90¢ $46 $56 +$10 (+23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $60 +$44 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$27 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$23 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$35 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$19 +303%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 +$17 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$41 +601%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $12 +$44 +360%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $23 +$21 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $99 +$168 +170%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $119 +$391 +328%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$301 +589%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $125 −$123 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 08 $101 −$99 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 +$198 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $101 +$167 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $45 +$61 +137%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $50 +$101 +202%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 30 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $75 +$70 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $139 −$136 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $107 +$99 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $107 +$100 +94%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $120 +$142 +118%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 22 $126 −$124 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $40 +$41 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 20 $50 −$49 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $61 +$57 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $123 +$245 +198%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? May 19 $26 −$4 -16%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $109 +$176 +161%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $40 +$38 +93%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $23 +$35 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $46 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $81 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $60 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $21 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $23 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $57 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $12 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $268 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.30 · official $61.30 (match) · 753 history records