Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
83 0x832a…26a9 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$66 (+32%) realized +$116 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$28
other 25% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +17.4% +6.2% 67% 67% +42.7%
≤30d 4 +23.4% +11.7% 75% 75% +38.9%
≤90d 4 +23.4% +11.7% 75% 75% +38.9%
all 4 +23.4% +11.7% 75% 75% +38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 75% +38.9%
10% +1.0% 75% +25.6%
15% -8.8% 50% +13.4%
20% -17.7% 25% +2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$12 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.99 per $1 lost it wins $7.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$60 +118%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 28¢ $68 36m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 20¢ $51 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $111 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 8 history records