Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x832b…5c91 other 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,925 (+2%) realized +$5,906 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate93%115W / 9L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,705per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$82,469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 43% +$13,741
other 22% +$8,284
economics 19% +$6,800
politics 7% +$3,195
finance 5% +$6,534
world 3% +$809
sports 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.7% -2.6% 78% 28% -3.6%
≤30d 74 +33.2% +20.5% 88% 19% -0.3%
≤90d 124 +50.5% +36.2% 93% 23% +5.3%
all 124 +50.5% +36.2% 93% 23% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.2% 23% +5.3%
10% +23.1% 20% -4.7%
15% ← realistic here +11.2% 18% -13.9%
20% +0.3% 15% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$2,592) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +64% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$58 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×76.62 per $1 lost it wins $76.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$82,469
Realized+$5,906
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses115 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions93
Markets (closed)124 / 206
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$1,705
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 93 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 94¢ 98¢ $6,779 $7,058 +$279 (+4%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 99¢ $6,019 $6,116 +$97 (+2%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $4,002 $4,008 +$6 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,896 $3,983 +$88 (+2%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $3,521 $3,483 −$38 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $3,058 $3,154 +$96 (+3%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $2,743 $2,779 +$35 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $2,662 $2,751 +$89 (+3%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $2,497 $2,532 +$36 (+1%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 96¢ $2,578 $2,528 −$49 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $2,235 $2,291 +$56 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,011 $2,046 +$35 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,825 $1,854 +$29 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,781 $1,839 +$57 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,740 $1,812 +$72 (+4%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $1,640 $1,770 +$130 (+8%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $1,743 $1,717 −$26 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 83¢ $1,889 $1,649 −$239 (-13%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 92¢ 97¢ $1,443 $1,532 +$89 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,455 $1,444 −$11 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $1,195 $1,252 +$58 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $1,169 $1,240 +$72 (+6%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $1,080 $1,208 +$128 (+12%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $969 $1,153 +$184 (+19%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 97¢ $1,155 $1,145 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr Jun 26 $12,834 +$261 +2%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Jun 25 $193 +$5 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 25 $5,730 −$157 -3%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,152 +$446 +39%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2,592 +$440 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $230 +$270 +117%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra Jun 24 $589 +$17 +3%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $497 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,290 +$31 +2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $3,848 +$173 +4%
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $434 +$66 +15%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,677 +$811 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 21 $932 +$38 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 21 $1,430 +$38 +3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,464 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $977 −$2 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $3,896 +$82 +2%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $6,386 +$108 +2%
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? Jun 17 $791 +$30 +4%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m Jun 17 $98 +$3 +3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $981 −$4 -0%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $101 +$1 +1%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $1,238 +$101 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $73 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $788 +$37 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $460 +$40 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $70 +$998 +1433%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1,966 +$29 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2,060 +$86 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6,585 +$366 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $2,442 +$45 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $3,052 +$111 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $2,826 +$65 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $6,090 +$337 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $14,780 +$132 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $15,665 +$345 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $7,260 +$322 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $6,321 +$101 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $3,539 +$187 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $3,015 +$1,217 +40%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $1,077 +$36 +3%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 12 $457 +$505 +110%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6,340 +$4,119 +65%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5,078 +$3,613 +71%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6,707 +$221 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $9 1m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 32m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 47m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $201 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $388 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr SELL No 100¢ $1,182 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $23 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $50 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $46 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $760 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 82¢ $461 5h
Will Neymar score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 5h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $9 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $440 7h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82,468.52 · official $82,468.33 (match) · 3500 history records