Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x832b…3ae1 sports 428 markets active 12h ago coverage 234d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 234d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,542 (+13%) realized +$23,875 · open +$1,667
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%220W / 180L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$21,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$524
7 days+$1,667
14 days+$1,752
30 days+$5,835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$2,657
other 26% +$1,431
politics 17% +$5,268
world 15% +$3,478
crypto 4% +$4,521
economics 4% +$893
culture 2% +$469
tech 2% +$2,101
finance 0% +$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -53.9% -58.3% 29% 21% +0.6%
≤30d 46 -20.2% -27.8% 52% 41% +5.1%
≤90d 97 -10.5% -19.0% 49% 42% -3.5%
all 400 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 46% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 46% -2.4%
10% -14.6% 37% -11.7%
15% -22.9% 29% -20.2%
20% -30.4% 22% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$179 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$21,484
Realized+$23,875
Unrealized+$1,667
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses220 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions31
Markets (closed)400 / 428
History coverage234d ⚠
Avg bet$458
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $3,588 $3,966 +$378 (+11%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $2,350 $2,475 +$125 (+5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,982 $1,993 +$11 (+1%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,848 $1,921 +$73 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 61¢ 86¢ $1,221 $1,730 +$509 (+42%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $742 $1,116 +$374 (+50%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $950 $989 +$39 (+4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $870 $935 +$66 (+8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 86¢ $840 $865 +$25 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 74¢ 90¢ $487 $595 +$109 (+22%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $445 $498 +$53 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 80¢ 100¢ $391 $486 +$95 (+24%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $426 $478 +$52 (+12%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $431 $472 +$41 (+10%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $404 $420 +$17 (+4%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 78¢ $315 $392 +$77 (+25%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $309 $382 +$73 (+24%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $450 $375 −$75 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 82¢ $296 $330 +$34 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $250 $218 −$32 (-13%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 57¢ 62¢ $137 $150 +$12 (+9%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $132 $140 +$8 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 71¢ 80¢ $112 $125 +$13 (+12%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $114 $117 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election in the firs Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will another pair of candidates advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,924 +$76 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $141 −$141 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $3,865 −$87 -2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 19 $772 −$300 -39%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 19 $1,412 +$182 +13%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $162 −$162 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $335 +$165 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3,633 +$3,055 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $858 +$342 +40%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $66 +$34 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $385 +$115 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,120 +$320 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $560 +$172 +31%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $351 −$349 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $311 −$309 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $144 −$120 -83%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $301 −$55 -18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $138 +$62 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $225 +$75 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $633 +$367 +58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $78 +$122 +156%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $259 −$259 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $944 +$56 +6%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $462 −$262 -57%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $988 +$12 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $1,300 +$872 +67%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $910 +$90 +10%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 05 $130 −$130 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,201 +$2,282 +104%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $892 +$608 +68%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,195 +$760 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,055 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $624 −$624 -100%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,022 +$178 +17%
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 30 $3,225 +$209 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 30 $240 +$60 +25%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $249 +$51 +20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $74 −$74 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 22 $380 −$180 -47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $117 −$117 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 11h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $60 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $1,982 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,924 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $65 21h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 31h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 80¢ $38 2d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 80¢ $73 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $410 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 47¢ $141 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $104 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $125 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $690 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $435 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $53 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $191 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $710 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $141 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $215 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $143 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $184 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $409 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $56 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $880 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $335 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $1,594 4d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,484.13 · official $21,483.89 (match) · 3500 history records