Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x8330…9f54 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$17
other 24% +$7
sports 3% +$26
crypto 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +5.7% -4.3% 17% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 44 +12.1% +1.4% 25% 14% -7.9%
all 54 +9.8% -0.7% 24% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 11% -9.3%
10% -10.2% 11% -17.9%
15% -18.9% 9% -25.9%
20% -26.8% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage622d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $77 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $6 +$7 +124%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $211 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $68 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$9 +165%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$7 +104%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $8 +$2 +31%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 06 $18 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 05 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $37 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 6h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 7h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 34h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 35h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $6 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $22 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.63 · official $68.63 (match) · 311 history records