Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8333…eb93 sports 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$118 (-0%) realized +$433 · open −$551
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%102W / 87L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$815per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$531
14 days+$931
30 days+$885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$2,111
politics 30% −$1,530
other 11% −$1,173
economics 1% +$78
world 1% −$100
weather 0% −$411
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 +3.6% -6.3% 40% 40% +20.7%
≤90d 7 +11.3% +0.7% 57% 57% +20.4%
all 189 +3.7% -6.2% 54% 44% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 44% -9.9%
10% -15.2% 41% -18.5%
15% -23.4% 38% -26.4%
20% -30.9% 35% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$720) neutral
Persistence
early +19% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$468 vs −$561 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$14,702
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$551
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses102 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)189 / 206
History coverage594d
Avg bet$815
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 80¢ $4,222 $4,495 +$273 (+6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 77¢ 82¢ $3,484 $3,733 +$249 (+7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 95¢ $1,000 $1,895 +$895 (+90%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 52¢ $1,186 $1,174 −$12 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 12¢ $848 $861 +$14 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 45¢ 42¢ $641 $609 −$32 (-5%)
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 86¢ $460 $430 −$30 (-7%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 44¢ 42¢ $445 $420 −$25 (-6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 71¢ 100¢ $285 $399 +$113 (+40%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 38¢ $513 $310 −$203 (-40%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 5¢ $1,000 $105 −$895 (-90%)
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 42¢ 42¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 46¢ 50¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 65¢ 66¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $43 $32 −$11 (-25%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 80¢ 81¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 47¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $542 −$531 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,337 +$1,463 +109%
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $411 −$411 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $334 +$366 +109%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Apr 18 $8 +$3 +39%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Mar 26 $73 +$16 +22%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $294 +$21 +7%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $1,443 +$57 +4%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating Feb 23 $6 +$10 +170%
Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds? Feb 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $198 −$198 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 09 $140 −$140 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Feb 09 $986 −$986 -100%
Clemson Tigers vs. Stanford Cardinal Feb 09 $650 −$650 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Feb 09 $2,153 −$1,233 -57%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $3,733 −$3,443 -92%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds? Feb 09 $7 +$34 +488%
Big Game: Coin Toss Team Winner Feb 09 $279 −$105 -38%
Big Game: Coin Toss Feb 09 $423 −$33 -8%
Nothing Ever Happens: February Feb 03 $157 +$5 +3%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 03 $180 +$2 +1%
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Feb 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Devils vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 Feb 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Thunder vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 109.5 Feb 03 $129 −$129 -100%
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Saint Joseph's Hawks Feb 03 $177 −$177 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5 Feb 03 $145 −$145 -100%
Lightning vs. Flyers Feb 03 $210 −$210 -100%
Islanders vs. Canucks Feb 03 $215 −$215 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 Feb 03 $510 −$510 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Feb 03 $310 −$310 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5 Feb 03 $430 −$430 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5 Feb 03 $460 −$460 -100%
San Francisco Dons vs. Santa Clara Broncos: O/U 150.5 Feb 03 $470 −$470 -100%
Penn Quakers vs. Cornell Big Red: O/U 173.5 Feb 03 $495 −$495 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 166.5 Feb 03 $436 −$436 -100%
Penguins vs. Canucks Feb 03 $499 −$499 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Simona Waltert Feb 03 $901 −$901 -100%
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5) Feb 03 $541 −$541 -100%
1H Spread: Texans (-1.5) Feb 03 $935 −$935 -100%
Jets vs. Panthers Feb 03 $2,586 −$2,586 -100%
Spread: Marquette Golden Eagles (-1.5) Feb 03 $3,092 −$3,092 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Feb 03 $3,110 −$3,110 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Feb 03 $3,904 −$3,904 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $504 +$21 +4%
Pelicans vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5 Feb 01 $163 +$139 +85%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Jan 30 $430 +$30 +7%
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-13.5) Jan 30 $2,921 +$3,040 +104%
1H Spread: Seahawks (-0.5) Jan 26 $19 +$21 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $125 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $32 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $260 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $143 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $635 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $299 1h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $74 1h
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $49 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $6 2h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $565 2h
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $5 4h
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $4 2d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $4 2d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $5 2d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $4 3d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $2 3d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $4 4d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $4 4d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $4 4d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $17 4d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 80¢ $10 4d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $2 4d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $3 5d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $130 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $0 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $1 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $2 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,702.04 · official $14,702.09 (match) · 1330 history records