Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x8335…9462 other 92 markets active 12h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$142 (+1%) realized +$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 49L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$27
other 11% +$1
sports 4% +$33
politics 2% −$2
finance 2% +$68
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$16
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 +2.3% -7.5% 36% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 36 -0.9% -10.4% 39% 6% -8.7%
all 92 +1.8% -7.9% 47% 8% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 8% -8.3%
10% -16.7% 5% -17.1%
15% -24.8% 4% -25.1%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage465d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $250 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $450 −$5 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $199 +$9 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $285 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $218 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $190 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $107 −$7 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $204 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $152 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $169 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $204 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $201 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $453 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $138 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $203 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $220 −$3 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $205 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $415 −$17 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $160 +$68 +42%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $5 +$1 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $158 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $1,041 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,029 +$13 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $66 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $92 −$4 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,058 +$36 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 01 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 08 $11 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Federico Dimarco be named the Champions League Final man of the m Jun 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $90 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $82 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $121 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $211 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $223 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $222 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $228 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $105 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $103 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $199 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $66 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $219 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $219 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $219 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $218 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records