Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

83 0x8337…29b6 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$247 (+18%) realized +$249 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$153per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+29.7%	+17.4%	71%	71%	+8.7%
≤30d	7	+29.7%	+17.4%	71%	71%	+8.7%
≤90d	7	+29.7%	+17.4%	71%	71%	+8.7%
all	7	+29.7%	+17.4%	71%	71%	+8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.4%	71%	+8.7%
10%	+6.1%	71%	-1.7%
15%	-4.1%	57%	-11.2%
20%	-13.5%	29%	-19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$81 vs −$84 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized+$249

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage3d

Avg bet$153

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$64	+$67	+105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$199	+$64	+32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$208	−$8	-4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$161	−$160	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$264	+$105	+40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$181	+$83	+46%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$96	+$86	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$64	16h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$199	35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	74¢	$199	37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$208	38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$161	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$264	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$264	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$181	2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$96	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.33 · official $198.33 (match) · 15 history records