Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8337…2827 weather 819 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$991 (-4%) realized −$994 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate86%695W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$31
14 days−$17
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,002
finance 0% −$4
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.0% -10.4% 98% 2% -10.3%
≤30d 297 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 779 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 2% -12.8%
all 812 -4.5% -13.6% 86% 3% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 3% -12.8%
10% -21.9% 2% -21.1%
15% -29.4% 1% -28.8%
20% -36.4% 1% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized−$994
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses695 / 117
Open positions7
Markets (closed)812 / 819
History coverage94d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 25m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $49 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $49 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $49 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 39h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 42h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4 42h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $28 42h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $22 42h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $37 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.99 · official $450.99 (match) · 2089 history records