Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x8342…6dc8 sports 456 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$555 (+1%) realized +$555 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%240W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$821est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,024
7 days+$500
14 days−$253
30 days−$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -22.7% -30.1% 44% 41% -3.2%
≤30d 151 -12.6% -20.9% 47% 42% -10.5%
≤90d 456 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 50% -9.2%
all 456 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 50% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% -9.2%
10% -21.5% 47% -17.9%
15% -29.1% 43% -25.8%
20% -36.0% 36% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$101 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$555
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses240 / 216
Est. fees paid−$821
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage89d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (130 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $200 +$151 +75%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $100 +$150 +150%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $152 +$136 +90%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $150 +$150 +100%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $291 +$320 +110%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $528 +$113 +21%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $597 +$143 +24%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $400 +$196 +49%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $306 −$306 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $150 +$89 +60%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $557 +$54 +10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $57 +$7 +12%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $344 −$256 -74%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $200 +$107 +54%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $132 −$132 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $297 +$234 +79%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $200 +$151 +75%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $304 −$284 -93%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $406 +$224 +55%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $329 −$329 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $367 −$80 -22%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $200 +$111 +56%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $143 +$162 +114%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $150 +$156 +104%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $200 +$93 +46%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $150 +$84 +56%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $244 −$244 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $33 −$19 -58%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $43 −$28 -65%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $7 −$3 -49%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $32 −$11 -34%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$1 -18%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $19 −$9 -45%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $59 −$40 -67%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $39 −$9 -24%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $400 +$244 +61%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $19 +$32 +167%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $12 −$7 -64%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $24 −$8 -31%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $26 −$23 -89%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $38 −$28 -74%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $27 −$8 -31%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $351 4m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S SELL D family 100¢ $250 4m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $6 58m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $0 58m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $4 58m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $4 58m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $4 58m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $5 59m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $4 59m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 57¢ $200 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $288 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $300 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 52¢ $152 2h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $150 2h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL D family 100¢ $611 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 64¢ $18 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 63¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 44¢ $39 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 44¢ $51 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 43¢ $17 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 41¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 41¢ $39 3h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 52¢ $100 4h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 50¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $641 16h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 82¢ $422 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1432 history records