Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8349…55d7 sports 216 markets active 2d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%91W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$20
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$11
other 33% +$2
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 39% -15.6%
≤30d 214 -1.0% -10.5% 43% 42% -8.8%
≤90d 214 -1.0% -10.5% 43% 42% -8.8%
all 214 -1.0% -10.5% 43% 42% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 42% -8.8%
10% -19.0% 41% -17.5%
15% -26.9% 41% -25.5%
20% -34.0% 41% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses91 / 123
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)214 / 216
History coverage17d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 53¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 179.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -13%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 21 $5 +$7 +129%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Keshav Chopra Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $5 +$7 +134%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $5 +$7 +134%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $5 +$8 +165%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $5 +$14 +276%
Spread: Criciúma EC (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Stroemmen IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Stabaek IF (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 47h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens SELL Elise Mertens 51¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 51¢ $5 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj BUY Veronika Erjavec 22¢ $5 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre BUY Peyton Stearns 44¢ $5 2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 43¢ $5 2d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 52¢ $5 2d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Antoine Ghibaudo 27¢ $5 2d
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Keshav Chopra BUY Keshav Chopra 32¢ $2 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 50¢ $5 3d
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 25¢ $5 3d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $5 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $5 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 42¢ $5 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 42¢ $5 4d
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan BUY Karl Kazuma Lee 39¢ $5 4d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 63¢ $5 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 5d
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 29¢ $5 5d
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 37¢ $5 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 5d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 36¢ $5 6d
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 43¢ $5 6d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 39¢ $5 6d
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 37¢ $5 7d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $5 7d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 41¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.90 · official $8.90 (match) · 333 history records