Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x834b…262b other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$117 (-5%) realized +$9 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$1,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days+$0
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$100
sports 9% +$77
crypto 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 100% +24.6%
≤30d 17 -2.9% -12.2% 41% 35% -3.4%
≤90d 17 -2.9% -12.2% 41% 35% -3.4%
all 17 -2.9% -12.2% 41% 35% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 35% -3.4%
10% -20.6% 35% -12.7%
15% -28.2% 35% -21.1%
20% -35.3% 29% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$34 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,381
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage16d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $758 $557 −$201 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $250 $315 +$65 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $249 $308 +$59 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $249 $200 −$49 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $74 +$28 +38%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +58%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +60%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$47 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $175 +$108 +62%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $23 +$152 +650%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $74 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $256 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $256 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $256 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $780 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 12d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 12d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 28¢ $32 13d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 40¢ $33 13d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 14d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 14d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 29¢ $22 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $31 14d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 14d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $20 14d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 14d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $180 14d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 15d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $283 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $175 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $77 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,380.76 · official $1,381.19 (match) · 35 history records