Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x834f…8b6e sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,679 (+3%) realized +$1,657 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,424per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$9,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$394
14 days−$3
30 days+$1,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,691
other 4% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 28 -4.7% -13.7% 82% 11% -7.0%
≤90d 36 -8.3% -17.1% 78% 11% -7.0%
all 36 -8.3% -17.1% 78% 11% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 11% -7.0%
10% -25.0% 6% -15.9%
15% -32.3% 3% -24.0%
20% -38.9% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,484) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$195 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$9,450
Realized+$1,657
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions11
Markets (closed)36 / 47
History coverage74d
Avg bet$1,424
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 93¢ 94¢ $5,716 $5,741 +$26 (+0%)
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,587 $1,614 +$27 (+2%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,058 $1,079 +$21 (+2%)
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 81¢ 68¢ $424 $357 −$67 (-16%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 96¢ 96¢ $274 $274 +$0 (+0%)
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No 95¢ 98¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $76 $80 +$4 (+6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $74 $79 +$5 (+7%)
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 95¢ 91¢ $76 $73 −$3 (-4%)
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $20 $28 +$9 (+44%)
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $27 $24 −$4 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 19 $8,097 +$374 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $281 +$19 +7%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $184 +$16 +9%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $386 +$24 +6%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $82 +$18 +22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $383 +$25 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $180 −$180 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $456 −$456 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $14 +$1 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3,454 +$135 +4%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 03 $208 +$2 +1%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $156 +$52 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 29 $104 +$2 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $165 +$7 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2,308 −$8 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $1,820 $0 +0%
ITF Kutaisi: David Prasievi vs Leonardo Rossi May 28 $71 +$5 +7%
ITF Wuning: Han Shi vs Ankita Raina May 28 $319 +$4 +1%
ITF Kutaisi: Robin Catry vs Daniel Lara Salmeron May 28 $455 +$31 +7%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $9,084 +$362 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $3,680 +$320 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $2,371 +$157 +7%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Alejandro Moro Canas May 26 $5,011 +$216 +4%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $51 −$48 -94%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 26 $2,107 +$92 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $3,156 +$29 +1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $3,004 +$119 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $304 −$303 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $334 −$328 -98%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $2,484 +$72 +3%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $547 +$51 +9%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 May 02 $947 +$84 +9%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $1,112 +$454 +41%
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Play Apr 25 $3,922 +$303 +8%
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Apr 19 $100 −$40 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 96¢ $274 1h
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 94¢ $19 8h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 90¢ $25 39h
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $131 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $117 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 99¢ $3 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $139 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $348 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $87 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $522 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $113 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,450.47 · official $9,450.48 (match) · 510 history records