Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x835a…530a other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,407 (-32%) realized −$11,467 · open −$940
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%33W / 33L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$508per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$4,494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,659
7 days−$420
14 days−$913
30 days−$852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$11,487
sports 9% −$251
tech 8% +$902
politics 4% −$675
weather 1% −$351
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +45.3% +31.4% 61% 61% -11.8%
≤30d 28 +4.3% -5.6% 46% 46% -13.6%
≤90d 29 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 45% -13.6%
all 66 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 42% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 42% -39.2%
10% -28.4% 41% -45.0%
15% -35.3% 30% -50.3%
20% -41.6% 18% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$560 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$4,494
Realized−$11,467
Unrealized−$940
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses33 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions9
Markets (closed)66 / 77
History coverage356d
Avg bet$508
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2,300 $1,913 −$387 (-17%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1,000 $1,024 +$24 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 36¢ $1,034 $765 −$269 (-26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $500 $380 −$120 (-24%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,324 +$1,018 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,074 +$1,178 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$426 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $879 +$618 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $880 −$868 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $693 +$316 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$73 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,020 +$962 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$298 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$612 +596%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $303 +$108 +36%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 31 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $303 −$300 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $940 +$660 +70%
BC Zenit vs. CSKA Moscow Apr 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $96 −$96 -100%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $124 −$124 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 08 $108 −$108 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 08 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 9? Mar 08 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 9? Mar 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 8? Mar 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 8? Mar 07 $207 −$207 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 8? Mar 07 $21 −$21 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $184 −$184 -100%
Clippers vs. Wizards Jan 24 $7 +$3 +43%
Suns vs. Nets Jan 24 $8 +$2 +30%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Panthers vs. Sabres Jan 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 20 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Nets vs. Raptors Dec 20 $50 +$8 +16%
Heat vs. 76ers Dec 20 $30 +$30 +100%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Dec 20 $59 +$6 +10%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Nov 23 $20 +$9 +43%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 23 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,050 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,252 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $3,324 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,074 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $879 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 34h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $880 36h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 5¢ $103 36h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $103 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $693 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,982 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,020 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,025 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 6d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 9d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 9d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 9d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 9d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,493.60 · official $4,493.60 (match) · 226 history records