Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

83 0x835b…0e81 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$37 (-12%) realized −$39 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%5W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day10.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+14.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+26.8%	+14.7%	25%	25%	-27.6%
≤30d	20	+26.8%	+14.7%	25%	25%	-27.6%
≤90d	20	+26.8%	+14.7%	25%	25%	-27.6%
all	20	+26.8%	+14.7%	25%	25%	-27.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.7%	25%	-27.6%
10%	+3.7%	25%	-34.6%
15%	-6.3%	25%	-40.9%
20%	-15.5%	25%	-46.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late +32% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized−$39

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses5 / 15

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage3d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day10.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	8¢	9¢	$40	$44	+$4 (+11%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	Over	13¢	6¢	$4	$2	−$2 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 23	$2	−$2	-97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$5	+$21	+413%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$28	−$27	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$32	−$31	-98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	+$13	+251%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$14	+$40	+278%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$20	−$4	-18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	+$40	+786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$23	+226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$20	−$10	-49%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	25¢	$10	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	13¢	$4	1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$26	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	8¢	$2	2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	10¢	$5	2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5	BUY Over	19¢	$5	3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	35¢	$20	7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	29¢	$10	10h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	BUY Yes	8¢	$41	12h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	30¢	$10	12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	83¢	$18	27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	30¢	$11	28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	89¢	$54	30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$14	31h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5	SELL Over	29¢	$17	32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	36h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	36h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5	BUY Over	34¢	$20	41h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	31¢	$15	41h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5	BUY Over	10¢	$1	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5	BUY Over	10¢	$1	2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5	BUY Over	26¢	$10	3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5	BUY Over	20¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.50 · official $47.12 (match) · 36 history records