Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x8360…1f26 crypto 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,536 (+7%) realized +$1,536 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate70%119W / 51L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,610
7 days+$1,688
14 days+$1,688
30 days+$1,634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,634
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +1.4% -8.2% 69% 50% -1.1%
≤30d 170 +15.2% +4.2% 70% 51% -2.7%
≤90d 170 +15.2% +4.2% 70% 51% -2.7%
all 170 +15.2% +4.2% 70% 51% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 51% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 36% -12.0%
15% -14.9% 25% -20.5%
20% -23.2% 16% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$67 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses119 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage16d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $405 +$85 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $372 +$34 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $371 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $299 +$74 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $709 +$890 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $503 −$503 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $513 +$139 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $293 −$214 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $120 +$99 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $305 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $397 −$136 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $270 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $376 −$100 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $408 +$84 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $662 +$231 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $654 +$55 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $507 +$141 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $214 −$149 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $153 −$32 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $541 +$441 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $204 −$173 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$20 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $233 −$193 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $253 +$38 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $296 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $144 +$101 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $224 +$85 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $221 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $327 +$53 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $161 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $275 −$111 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$71 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $405 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $372 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $371 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $299 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $153 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $556 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $503 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $508 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $275 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $270 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $220 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $156 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $254 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $163 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $154 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $251 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 624 history records