Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8369…eae8 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-4%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate88%35W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -2.3% -11.6% 94% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 40 -3.8% -13.0% 88% 5% -13.3%
≤90d 40 -3.8% -13.0% 88% 5% -13.3%
all 40 -3.8% -13.0% 88% 5% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -13.3%
10% -21.3% 5% -21.6%
15% -28.9% 5% -29.1%
20% -35.9% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$26 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses35 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage29d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $92 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $93 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $92 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $92 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $92 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $93 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $93 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $93 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $92 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $92 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records