Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x836d…3922 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$20
politics 33% −$16
sports 10% +$70
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 143 +0.3% -9.3% 9% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×13.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage135d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $192 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $465 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $197 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $227 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $267 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,404 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 11 $246 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $268 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $225 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $256 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $260 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $249 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $240 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $275 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 30 $254 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $204 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $271 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 24 $270 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 38h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 45h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 47h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 23d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $265 25d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $265 27d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 27d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 27d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 29d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 29d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $197 29d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $197 29d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $227 30d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $227 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $260 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $260 30d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 31d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 31d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 32d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $267 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 433 history records