Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x836e…331f crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$11
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$55
crypto 39% −$21
other 21% +$44
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.3% -27.0% 25% 25% -5.9%
≤30d 21 -22.8% -30.1% 24% 24% -12.1%
≤90d 43 -14.3% -22.5% 37% 37% -15.5%
all 43 -14.3% -22.5% 37% 37% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 37% -15.5%
10% -29.9% 37% -23.6%
15% -36.7% 37% -31.0%
20% -42.9% 28% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage33d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $62 −$1 -2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $23 −$23 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -28%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 $0 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$47 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$1 -5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$1 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$1 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$1 -5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 $0 -3%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 $0 -1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 +$5 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 +$11 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 21 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 20 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $8 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 19 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 19 $17 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 19 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 19 $5 +$4 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $78 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $61 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 47¢ $12 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $11 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $11 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 68¢ $12 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 49¢ $12 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 63¢ $12 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $12 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $12 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $12 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $12 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $12 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $12 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $12 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records