Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x836f…001f world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$9
other 6% $0
tech 6% −$2
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 17 +4.8% -5.2% 35% 12% -8.1%
≤90d 17 +4.8% -5.2% 35% 12% -8.1%
all 34 -3.8% -12.9% 41% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 6% -8.9%
10% -21.3% 3% -17.6%
15% -28.9% 3% -25.6%
20% -35.8% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage448d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $81 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $42 +$7 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 28 $9 $0 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 24 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $22 $0 -0%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
TikTok sale announced before April? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $19 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $0 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $15 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $42 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 80¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 80¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.88 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records