Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x836f…906e world 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,616 (+4%) realized +$21,271 · open +$11,345
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate95%122W / 7L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$5,711per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$218,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$161
14 days+$354
30 days+$10,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$25,533
politics 13% +$4,392
other 3% +$1,133
economics 1% +$186
sports 0% −$63
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 76 +4.9% -5.1% 93% 12% -7.0%
≤90d 111 +4.6% -5.3% 94% 14% -6.3%
all 129 +4.3% -5.7% 95% 12% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 12% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 5% -15.4%
15% -22.9% 3% -23.6%
20% -30.5% 2% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$4,596) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$946 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$218,226
Realized+$21,271
Unrealized+$11,345
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses122 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions31
Markets (closed)129 / 160
History coverage136d
Avg bet$5,711
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $51,331 $53,367 +$2,036 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $25,453 $28,554 +$3,101 (+12%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $24,595 $24,590 −$6 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $21,878 $22,359 +$481 (+2%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 99¢ $13,929 $15,792 +$1,863 (+13%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $13,014 $14,254 +$1,241 (+10%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 84¢ $7,480 $8,690 +$1,211 (+16%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $7,947 $8,301 +$354 (+4%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 92¢ 93¢ $6,933 $6,982 +$49 (+1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $5,727 $6,319 +$591 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,255 $5,342 +$87 (+2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $4,270 $4,315 +$45 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,636 $3,765 +$129 (+4%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,779 $2,821 +$42 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,939 $2,025 +$86 (+4%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,917 $2,019 +$103 (+5%)
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,846 $1,993 +$147 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $888 $945 +$57 (+6%)
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? No 85¢ 92¢ $701 $759 +$58 (+8%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $704 $746 +$42 (+6%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $678 $740 +$63 (+9%)
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $704 $717 +$13 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $554 $556 +$3 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 72¢ 70¢ $548 $536 −$11 (-2%)
Iran full airspace closure by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $429 $438 +$9 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 24 $167 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 22 $11,147 +$146 +1%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? Jun 22 $644 +$13 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $185 +$105 +57%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 22 $399 +$259 +65%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,414 −$64 -4%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $1,567 +$161 +10%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $489 +$113 +23%
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $2,196 +$30 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 20 $543 +$26 +5%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $1,933 +$231 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,738 +$39 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,345 +$26 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4,726 +$87 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,568 +$10 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $878 +$21 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $976 +$27 +3%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 17 $787 +$635 +81%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $2,455 −$1,418 -58%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $9,117 −$2,487 -27%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 17 $6,639 +$281 +4%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $7,452 +$11 +0%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Jun 17 $4,131 +$30 +1%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $3,648 +$87 +2%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 16 $3,779 +$25 +1%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 16 $997 +$4 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 16 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $3,005 +$5 +0%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 16 $12,520 +$71 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $2,517 +$75 +3%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $1,651 +$38 +2%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $5,328 +$69 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $3,676 +$169 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $7,373 +$443 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2,658 +$138 +5%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $5,879 +$12 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $559 +$10 +2%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,804 +$14 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6,915 +$580 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3,585 +$276 +8%
Will Larry David attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $189 −$68 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $849 +$89 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $313 +$26 +8%
Will Bad Bunny attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Lady Gaga attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $54 +$3 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1,741 +$97 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1,071 +$27 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,594 +$78 +5%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $7,967 +$291 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $711 +$30 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $14,024 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $49,950 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,833 39h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $839 39h
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? BUY No 85¢ $28 2d
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? BUY No 85¢ $8 2d
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? BUY No 85¢ $87 2d
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? BUY No 85¢ $136 2d
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? BUY No 85¢ $139 2d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $401 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $95 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $38 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $20 2d
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? BUY No 99¢ $306 2d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY No 95¢ $220 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $529 2d
Iran full airspace closure by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $67 2d
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? BUY No 84¢ $302 2d
Iran full airspace closure by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $361 2d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $53 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $4,360 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $3,165 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $4,360 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $65 3d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $57 3d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 4d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $247 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218,226.15 · official $218,226.15 (match) · 2098 history records