Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8370…f352 world 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,073 (-1%) realized −$1,011 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate67%68W / 34L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,260per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$6,122
politics 16% −$116
other 12% +$4,231
tech 5% +$878
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.5% -27.2% 0% 0% -17.0%
≤30d 3 -19.5% -27.2% 0% 0% -17.0%
≤90d 16 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 31% -27.9%
all 102 -6.9% -15.7% 67% 21% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 21% -10.3%
10% -23.8% 12% -18.9%
15% -31.2% 9% -26.7%
20% -37.9% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,835) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$449 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$1,011
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses68 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage168d
Avg bet$1,260
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $326 $264 −$62 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 23 $328 $0 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $217 −$127 -59%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $995 $0 -0%
X Money released by April 30, 2026? May 13 $506 −$443 -88%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $3,247 −$1,183 -36%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $6,150 −$6,065 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $8,079 −$49 -1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Apr 06 $217 −$10 -4%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Apr 05 $172 +$10 +6%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 03 $4,004 −$4,004 -100%
Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30? Apr 02 $90 +$33 +37%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $2,467 +$597 +24%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 01 $3,956 +$40 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $4,837 +$914 +19%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 01 $2,229 +$275 +12%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $7,390 +$894 +12%
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in March? Mar 23 $927 +$52 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 18 $1,738 +$202 +12%
Will SpaceX have exactly 8 launches in March? Mar 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Will SpaceX have exactly 7 launches in March? Mar 17 $64 +$4 +6%
Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 6 launches in March? Mar 15 $371 +$9 +2%
Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $23 −$23 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 13 $2,954 −$32 -1%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $1,016 +$424 +42%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 09 $3,450 +$498 +14%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $388 +$142 +37%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026? Mar 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Kristi Noem out by March 31? Mar 06 $385 −$115 -30%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026? Mar 05 $89 +$7 +8%
Will Iran strike one country in March? Mar 05 $935 +$32 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $273 −$164 -60%
Will Iran strike no countries in March? Mar 02 $600 +$7 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $2,981 +$312 +10%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 01 $570 −$165 -29%
Will Iran strike Oman in March? Mar 01 $90 −$12 -13%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $1,008 +$30 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 01 $66 +$55 +84%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $1,044 +$31 +3%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $4,205 +$143 +3%
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? Mar 01 $2,437 +$67 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $542 −$310 -57%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $1,817 +$4 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026? Feb 28 $151 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $328 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $326 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $328 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $90 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $183 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $995 4d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $995 5d
X Money released by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 75d
X Money released by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $61 75d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $335 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $145 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $48 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $127 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $118 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL No 1¢ $85 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 1¢ $10 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $530 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 62¢ $484 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 62¢ $7 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 62¢ $6 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 62¢ $4 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.50 · official $263.50 (match) · 1189 history records