Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x8370…cd4f sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$755 (-13%) realized −$585 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,500
14 days−$1,600
30 days−$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$805
other 33% −$1,770
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -27.4% -34.3% 40% 40% -22.5%
≤90d 10 -27.4% -34.3% 40% 40% -22.5%
all 10 -27.4% -34.3% 40% 40% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 40% -22.5%
10% -40.6% 30% -29.9%
15% -46.3% 30% -36.7%
20% -51.6% 30% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$495 vs −$462 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$585
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage24d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $300 $130 −$170 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $612 −$600 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $795 +$404 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $550 +$950 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $547 +$453 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $167 −$165 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $871 +$174 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 31¢ $612 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $406 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $294 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $257 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $547 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $639 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $167 21d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $156 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 96¢ $67 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 82¢ $804 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $909 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $101 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.55 · official $129.55 (match) · 21 history records