Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8371…5f47 sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$164 (-3%) realized −$237 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230
7 days−$261
14 days−$358
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$101
sports 33% −$100
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -41.5% -47.1% 21% 7% -39.1%
≤30d 56 -32.6% -39.0% 27% 16% -29.3%
≤90d 77 -18.4% -26.1% 35% 26% -21.3%
all 77 -18.4% -26.1% 35% 26% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 26% -21.3%
10% -33.2% 25% -28.8%
15% -39.7% 22% -35.7%
20% -45.6% 22% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$2,868
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions33
Markets (closed)77 / 110
History coverage45d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $300 $405 +$105 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $300 $326 +$25 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $300 $256 −$44 (-15%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 54¢ $100 $185 +$85 (+85%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 37¢ 38¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 35¢ 36¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $22 −$18 (-44%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 18 $50 −$8 -15%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$5 -17%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$3 -23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $35 −$6 -16%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$1 +3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$9 -18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$5 -35%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$4 +17%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$21 -58%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$11 -28%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Leandro Paredes be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 −$2 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$6 -37%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $303 −$11 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 10 $51 −$8 -16%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 10 $36 −$5 -14%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Alejandro Garnacho be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Jun 02 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$14 +67%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$21 +70%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 2.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 30 $31 −$13 -42%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 30 $25 −$11 -43%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $51 −$2 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $21 +$36 +175%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 40¢ $15 16m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 51¢ $20 1h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 63¢ $6 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 52¢ $36 1h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 64¢ $37 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $50 8h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 69¢ $50 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 36¢ $25 10h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 22¢ $12 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 10h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 57¢ $52 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $0 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $36 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $15 12h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 12h
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Leandro Paredes be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 28h
Will Leandro Paredes be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 28h
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $34 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 18¢ $15 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 6¢ $5 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 57¢ $29 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 39¢ $30 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $10 4d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,868.36 · official $2,868.26 (match) · 276 history records