Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
83 0x8373…7475 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$213 (+24%) realized +$557 · open −$344
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip
Net edge+59%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$64
crypto 8% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+65.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +82.7% +65.3% 100% 100% +47.8%
≤30d 4 +82.7% +65.3% 100% 100% +47.8%
≤90d 4 +82.7% +65.3% 100% 100% +47.8%
all 4 +82.7% +65.3% 100% 100% +47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.3% 100% +47.8%
10% +49.5% 100% +33.6%
15% +35.0% 100% +20.7%
20% +21.8% 50% +8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$557
Unrealized−$344
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Leonid Sheyngezikht 54¢ 0¢ $345 $0 −$344 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $69 +$67 +97%
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova Jun 24 $240 +$110 +46%
ITF Wuning: Joshua Charlton vs Zhao Zhao Jun 24 $171 +$68 +40%
ITF Taipei: Sara Saito vs Erika Sema Jun 24 $69 +$102 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $69 16m
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht BUY Leonid Sheyngezikht 54¢ $349 1h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 100¢ $350 1h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova BUY Marianna Shikhanova 68¢ $240 3h
ITF Wuning: Joshua Charlton vs Zhao Zhao SELL Joshua Charlton 98¢ $240 3h
ITF Wuning: Joshua Charlton vs Zhao Zhao BUY Joshua Charlton 69¢ $171 3h
ITF Taipei: Sara Saito vs Erika Sema SELL Erika Sema 99¢ $171 3h
ITF Taipei: Sara Saito vs Erika Sema BUY Erika Sema 39¢ $69 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.32 (match) · 9 history records