Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x8378…0090 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$655 (+13%) realized +$660 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%44W / 29L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$41
14 days+$530
30 days+$617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$852
other 20% −$234
politics 5% −$2
tech 3% +$2
world 3% +$13
crypto 2% −$17
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -3.7% -12.9% 62% 62% -12.0%
≤30d 73 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 53% +2.1%
≤90d 73 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 53% +2.1%
all 73 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 53% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 53% +2.1%
10% -19.1% 45% -7.6%
15% -27.0% 36% -16.6%
20% -34.1% 18% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$39 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$660
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses44 / 29
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)73 / 79
History coverage28d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
United States to score first vs. Australia? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$22 -72%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$13 +42%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $81 +$53 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$38 -93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$22 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 +$15 +19%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$48 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$18 +44%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$13 +32%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $101 +$44 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $28 +$10 +36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 +$26 +44%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $40 −$40 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$26 +52%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 09 $35 −$2 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $346 +$526 +152%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 04 $50 −$43 -86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 02 $20 +$8 +42%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Klara Vaja vs Sara Cozma Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Dana Charintceva Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $30 +$20 +65%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $50 +$9 +17%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $30 +$10 +34%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$9 +22%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $223 +$144 +65%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $184 −$180 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $40 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 29h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 29h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 18¢ $8 29h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 63¢ $30 30h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 32h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $30 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 38h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $3 38h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 38h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $51 38h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $41 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 84¢ $50 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 83¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 73¢ $50 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $81 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $40 5d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 72¢ $50 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.73 · official $289.73 (match) · 154 history records