Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
83 0x837c…2077 sports 619 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+5%) realized +$66 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%278W / 331L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$9
14 days−$17
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$53
other 21% +$7
crypto 5% −$13
world 0% +$2
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +73.8% +57.3% 64% 64% +28.9%
≤30d 101 +10.3% -0.2% 44% 42% -1.9%
≤90d 557 +5.1% -4.9% 47% 44% -5.8%
all 609 +3.4% -6.4% 46% 43% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 43% -6.4%
10% -15.4% 40% -15.4%
15% -23.6% 35% -23.5%
20% -31.1% 30% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses278 / 331
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions10
Markets (closed)609 / 619
History coverage127d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Norbert Gombos 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$5 +456%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$3 +226%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$3 +58%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $7 −$3 -42%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +133%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 06 $2 +$1 +55%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$3 -56%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$4 +130%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$4 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -87%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $2 +$1 +32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 +$1 +64%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$10 +481%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $10 +$37 +376%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Clara Tauson 4¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 61¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 21¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 20¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 94¢ $4 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $1 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $1 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $1 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $1 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $1 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 44h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 78¢ $1 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $1 2d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 30¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.08 · official $15.16 (match) · 2121 history records