Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x837c…efc1 crypto 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$815 (+1%) realized +$817 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate69%148W / 67L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$116
14 days−$111
30 days+$667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$736
other 2% +$1
economics 0% +$5
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 43 +0.2% -9.4% 72% 9% -6.1%
≤90d 84 +0.8% -8.8% 79% 6% -7.6%
all 215 +1.2% -8.5% 69% 13% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 13% -8.4%
10% -17.2% 7% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 6% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$788
Realized+$817
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses148 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)215 / 219
History coverage558d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $425 $424 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 91¢ $175 $171 −$4 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $144 $147 +$3 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 19 $339 −$80 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $835 +$11 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $767 −$43 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $360 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $540 −$11 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 12 $98 −$24 -24%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $200 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $176 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $210 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $490 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $549 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 6? Jun 07 $201 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $369 +$156 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $700 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,018 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $740 +$441 +60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $251 −$19 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $224 +$176 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $470 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $410 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 28? May 29 $896 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 28 $1,723 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $1,335 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 27 $220 −$19 -9%
Will Solana dip to $80 on May 26? May 27 $619 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 27 $767 −$8 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $615 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 26 $312 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 25? May 26 $42 −$41 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 25? May 26 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 23 $899 +$43 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? May 22 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 21 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 20? May 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 21 $472 +$19 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19? May 20 $162 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $875 −$91 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 18 $198 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 18 $134 +$8 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $279 +$10 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 13 $301 +$9 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $300 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $23 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $0 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $70 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $224 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 96¢ $334 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $108 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $99 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 96¢ $2 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $145 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 96¢ $144 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $175 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 94¢ $470 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $23 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $484 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $179 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $177 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $470 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $141 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 74¢ $109 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 74¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.80 · official $787.80 (match) · 1065 history records