Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x837d…8a0d other 34 markets active 5d ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,484 (+15%) realized +$1,121 · open +$363
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$529
finance 25% +$1,717
tech 13% +$816
politics 9% −$406
world 3% +$34
crypto 2% −$122
economics 1% −$33
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 32 -16.2% -24.2% 44% 38% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 38% +7.5%
10% -31.4% 31% -2.8%
15% -38.0% 25% -12.2%
20% -44.1% 19% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$107 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$3,638
Realized+$1,121
Unrealized+$363
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage359d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2,694 $3,088 +$393 (+15%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $580 $550 −$30 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 05 $260 −$252 -97%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 05 $120 −$99 -83%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $121 −$54 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $296 −$245 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $28 −$27 -96%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $52 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 28 $13 +$6 +47%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $285 +$10 +4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 27 $84 +$289 +347%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 21 $382 −$382 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13? Feb 14 $1,635 +$1,509 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 11 $75 −$75 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $505 +$409 +81%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January? Jan 31 $910 +$633 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 30 $8 +$2 +25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $146 −$138 -95%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $589 −$443 -75%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Oct 26 $79 −$79 -99%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025? Oct 26 $200 +$25 +12%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 26 $100 +$53 +53%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 17 $42 −$17 -41%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 16 $75 +$2 +2%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15? Oct 12 $94 −$26 -27%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Oct 11 $100 +$18 +18%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 30 $100 +$62 +62%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 30 $10 −$2 -23%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 30 $40 −$14 -34%
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,257 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $493 5d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 58¢ $587 5d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 23¢ $15 43d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 23¢ $18 43d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 23¢ $6 43d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 23¢ $9 43d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 23¢ $9 43d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY Yes 23¢ $203 43d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 3¢ $18 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? SELL Up 7¢ $18 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 13¢ $21 104d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 3¢ $21 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $8 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $2 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $3 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $22 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $2 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $2 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $3 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $2 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $3 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 52¢ $2 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? SELL Up 52¢ $48 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? BUY Up 55¢ $51 104d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $50 104d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 104d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $296 104d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,637.57 · official $3,637.57 (match) · 157 history records