trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 12% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 38% | 12% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 38% | 12% | -9.6% |
| all | 23 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 43% | 17% | -11.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.9% | 17% | -11.0% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 9% | -19.5% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 4% | -27.3% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 4% | -34.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | $31 | $32 | +$1 (+2%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 22 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 21 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 21 | $52 | −$1 | -3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $22 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 16 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $5 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 14 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $7 | +$1 | +13% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $44 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $13 | −$1 | -8% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Dec 09 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio | May 06 | $1 | +$1 | +95% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 25? | Mar 04 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025? | Feb 25 | $12 | +$2 | +17% |