Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8388…a05c crypto 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-5%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate66%70W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$5
14 days+$17
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$19
crypto 36% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.4% -5.6% 67% 67% -5.6%
≤30d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 61% 61% -13.4%
≤90d 106 -6.9% -15.7% 66% 65% -14.6%
all 106 -6.9% -15.7% 66% 65% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 65% -14.6%
10% -23.8% 35% -22.8%
15% -31.2% 28% -30.2%
20% -37.9% 26% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses70 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage62d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$17 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $25 −$22 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $25 −$22 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $25 −$22 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 19 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 18 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 18 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 18 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 18 $11 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $18 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $17 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $3 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $15 13d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 16d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 16d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $2 18d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 19d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 281 history records