Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x838a…392d other 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 224L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$36
sports 24% −$15
politics 11% −$8
culture 7% −$7
crypto 7% −$4
economics 7% −$8
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage128d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $723 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $351 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $439 +$1 +0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $277 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $190 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $204 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $136 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 07 $218 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $451 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $295 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 7h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 7h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 12h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 16h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 23h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 25h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 26h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 27h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 29h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $50 30h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 33h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 37h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 38h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 39h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 41h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 43h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 45h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 46h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 47h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1340 history records