Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x838c…faeb crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$95 (-5%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$133
other 8% +$18
politics 1% −$14
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.8% -33.7% 67% 33% -35.5%
≤30d 3 -26.8% -33.7% 67% 33% -35.5%
≤90d 3 -26.8% -33.7% 67% 33% -35.5%
all 27 -21.3% -28.8% 56% 22% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 22% -15.8%
10% -35.6% 7% -23.8%
15% -41.8% 4% -31.2%
20% -47.5% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage204d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $32 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? Dec 10 $242 −$147 -61%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 105 billion views by December 31? Dec 10 $59 +$28 +47%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 09 $120 −$3 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $184 +$14 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 10? Dec 09 $77 +$16 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? Dec 08 $110 +$13 +12%
Will MrBeast hit 105.5 billion views by December 31? Dec 08 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 07 $83 −$18 -22%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $76 +$6 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7? Dec 05 $70 +$6 +8%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 05 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks? Dec 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 4? Dec 04 $68 +$16 +23%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 3? Dec 03 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3? Dec 03 $88 +$15 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 3? Dec 02 $83 +$5 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 2? Dec 02 $77 +$7 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 2? Dec 02 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 2? Dec 02 $136 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $20 −$15 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $81 −$17 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $139 195d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? SELL Yes 79¢ $79 195d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 195d
Will MrBeast hit 105 billion views by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $52 195d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? SELL Yes 75¢ $16 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? BUY Yes 85¢ $103 196d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 90¢ $103 196d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $108 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $108 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? BUY Yes 83¢ $90 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? SELL No 81¢ $90 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? BUY No 84¢ $94 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 10? SELL Yes 96¢ $94 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 10? BUY Yes 79¢ $77 197d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? SELL No 100¢ $77 197d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? BUY No 58¢ $45 197d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? SELL Yes 43¢ $45 197d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? BUY Yes 62¢ $65 197d
Will MrBeast hit 105.5 billion views by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $65 197d
Will MrBeast hit 105.5 billion views by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $64 198d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 57¢ $64 198d
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? BUY No 21¢ $14 198d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 27¢ $14 198d
Will MrBeast hit 105 billion views by December 31? BUY No 37¢ $34 199d
Will MrBeast hit 105 billion views by December 31? BUY No 28¢ $0 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records