Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x838d…0e42 sports 40 markets active 8h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$55
14 days−$28
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$70
other 26% −$69
world 20% $0
politics 3% +$1
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.8% -13.9% 43% 43% -18.0%
≤30d 39 +6.4% -3.7% 51% 49% -2.3%
≤90d 39 +6.4% -3.7% 51% 49% -2.3%
all 39 +6.4% -3.7% 51% 49% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 49% -2.3%
10% -12.9% 46% -11.6%
15% -21.4% 44% -20.2%
20% -29.1% 41% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage27d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +54%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 +$22 +238%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 +$19 +165%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$13 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$7 +83%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$32 -79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$7 -68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +114%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +162%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $13 +$1 +11%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $24 −$24 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $18 +$20 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 64¢ $20 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Scotla BUY 24¢ $10 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $11 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $9 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $11 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $11 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $3 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $8 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $8 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $15 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $6 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $7 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $11 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $8 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records