Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x8390…09f1
world · 29 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
+$8,243 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$887 · open +$7,133
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$33,769
Realized+$887
Unrealized+$7,133
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)14 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2,059
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 15 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$779
7 days+$887
14 days+$887
30 days+$887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 29¢ 56¢ $5,300 $10,168 +$4,868 (+92%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $5,780 $6,680 +$900 (+16%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $2,600 $2,950 +$351 (+13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 91¢ 94¢ $2,730 $2,821 +$91 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2,040 $2,020 −$20 (-1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 87¢ 100¢ $1,738 $1,993 +$255 (+15%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,840 $1,972 +$132 (+7%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,030 $1,200 +$170 (+17%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1,099 $1,088 −$12 (-1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $868 $968 +$100 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $825 $785 −$40 (-5%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $198 $520 +$322 (+162%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $483 $500 +$16 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 14¢ 15¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 31¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 93¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ $335 $0 −$335 (-100%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 14¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $2,779 +$402 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $246 −$126 -51%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $14,580 +$648 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $74 −$72 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $2,751 +$148 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $620 +$90 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$53 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $335 −$335 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,246 +$112 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $520 −$70 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $770 +$130 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2,952 +$48 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$7,191
politics 29% +$999
other 13% −$48
sports 0% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $997 6h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 14¢ $4 6h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $100 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $120 9h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 11h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 11h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $176 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $188 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $158 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $752 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $252 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $10 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $404 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $202 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $32 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $9 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,040 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $910 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $390 13h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $1,304 13h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $562 13h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $108 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 13h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $49 13h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $74 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $286 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $148 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $148 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.6% -28.2% 57% 29% -6.6%
≤30d 14 -20.6% -28.2% 57% 29% -6.6%
≤90d 14 -20.6% -28.2% 57% 29% -6.6%
all 14 -20.6% -28.2% 57% 29% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 29% -6.6%
10% -35.1% 7% -15.5%
15% ← realistic here -41.3% 7% -23.7%
20% -47.1% 7% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,768.71 · official $33,770.51 (match) · 234 history records