Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
83 0x8393…cb46 sports 680 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$258 (+7%) realized +$264 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%369W / 273L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day102.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days+$222
14 days+$200
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$185
other 3% $0
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 498 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 57% -3.2%
≤30d 642 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 55% -4.0%
≤90d 642 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 55% -4.0%
all 642 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 55% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 55% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 50% -13.2%
15% -24.4% 41% -21.6%
20% -31.9% 32% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses369 / 273
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions38
Markets (closed)642 / 680
History coverage10d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day102.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 642 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Shuai Zhang 79¢ 94¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 35¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 53¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Galions 43¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Facundo Acosta 78¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 34¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Galions 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Gonzalo Bueno 74¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 77¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 60¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 42¢ 43¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Talia Gibson 74¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 78¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Galions 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Anna Blinkova 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 233 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $7 −$14 -198%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $10 −$3 -32%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +83%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$16 -196%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$13 +128%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $10 +$13 +123%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$9 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$9 +89%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $8 +$10 +118%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$15 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $24 24m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 73¢ $10 26m
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 65¢ $10 34m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 79¢ $10 43m
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 51¢ $10 46m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $18 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 1h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $11 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 55¢ $10 2h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 43¢ $10 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 43¢ $10 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 43¢ $10 3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 35¢ $10 3h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $16 5h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 62¢ $10 6h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $12 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $10 9h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $10 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 10h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.15 · official $365.15 (match) · 1139 history records