Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8396…8c17 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 35L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$2
other 26% $0
politics 12% +$4
crypto 9% $0
economics 8% $0
finance 3% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 0% -0.5%
≤30d 9 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 55 -0.7% -10.1% 36% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.1%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage477d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $36 +$2 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will LaTanya Richardson Jackson win the Tony for Best Leading Actress Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 08 $19 $0 +1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $17 $0 -2%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June? May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? May 06 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11? Apr 08 $1 $0 -48%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $18 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $42 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $16 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $22 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $24 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $12 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $6 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $35 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $40 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $12 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $21 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.27 · official $42.08 (match) · 159 history records