Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8398…84f1 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-21%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%31W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -86.9% -88.1% 0% 0% -94.4%
≤30d 63 -24.2% -31.5% 49% 40% -40.4%
≤90d 63 -24.2% -31.5% 49% 40% -40.4%
all 63 -24.2% -31.5% 49% 40% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 40% -40.4%
10% -38.0% 24% -46.1%
15% -44.0% 16% -51.3%
20% -49.5% 11% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses31 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage20d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$8 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$8 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 01 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 01 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 31 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 29 $9 +$9 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 28 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 28 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 28 $13 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 28 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 28 $12 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 28 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 28 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 28 $9 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 28 $24 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $53 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $15 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $6 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $14 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records