Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8398…7490 politics 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$60 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%16W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$25
14 days−$36
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$36
other 23% −$20
sports 16% −$7
crypto 7% −$7
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$7
culture 4% −$6
finance 4% −$2
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 69 -0.6% -10.0% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 148 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 158 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses16 / 142
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage100d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 96¢ 94¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $180 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $286 −$5 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $209 −$2 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $171 −$1 -1%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 $0 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $58 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $102 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $300 −$5 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $239 −$1 -0%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 11 $48 +$4 +7%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $140 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 09 $49 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $112 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $505 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $214 −$2 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $425 −$5 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $54 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $93 −$2 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $53 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $255 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $127 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $125 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $130 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $71 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 9h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 9h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 17h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $53 18h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $55 23h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $68 23h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $69 30h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $66 30h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $66 35h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $67 36h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $67 44h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $71 44h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $72 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $58 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $56 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $50 4d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.31 · official $69.31 (match) · 694 history records