Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x839e…0d3c sports 21 markets active 4h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$52,661 (-40%) realized −$52,611 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,270per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1,308est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,571
7 days−$31,709
14 days−$34,709
30 days−$53,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$49,662
other 23% −$3,510
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.7% -29.2% 47% 47% -36.4%
≤30d 20 -33.5% -39.8% 40% 40% -47.0%
≤90d 20 -33.5% -39.8% 40% 40% -47.0%
all 20 -33.5% -39.8% 40% 40% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.8% 40% -47.0%
10% ← realistic here -45.6% 40% -52.1%
15% -50.8% 35% -56.7%
20% -55.6% 20% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$10,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,386 vs −$6,684 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2,350
Realized−$52,611
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1,308
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage20d
Avg bet$6,270
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2,400 $2,350 −$50 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $14,521 −$14,400 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $7,260 +$2,740 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $4,675 +$5,325 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10,135 −$10,000 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,964 +$3,036 +44%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,072 +$3,928 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,766 +$3,234 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,263 −$6,200 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15,212 −$15,000 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10,069 +$2,918 +29%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4,060 +$3,940 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4,050 −$4,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $3,059 −$3,000 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,530 −$1,500 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,531 −$1,500 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18,724 −$18,413 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $14,521 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5,075 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,455 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $7,260 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $4,675 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $10,135 32h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $206 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6,766 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $6,964 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $6,072 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6,263 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $1,022 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10,137 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $10,069 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5,076 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $4,060 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,050 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 34¢ $3,059 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2,030 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,530 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,531 7d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $4,065 19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $14,659 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,350.00 · official $2,350.00 (match) · 31 history records