Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x839e…7aec crypto 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-3%) realized −$20 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%89W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$64
14 days−$52
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$54
other 13% +$6
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -30.1% -36.8% 34% 33% -29.0%
≤30d 220 -12.7% -21.0% 36% 36% -15.7%
≤90d 220 -12.7% -21.0% 36% 36% -15.7%
all 238 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 37% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -15.0%
10% -27.2% 34% -23.1%
15% -34.3% 33% -30.6%
20% -40.7% 32% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses89 / 149
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)238 / 253
History coverage291d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$7 +114%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -52%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +151%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.06 · official $24.06 (match) · 551 history records