Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x839f…fb43 sports 41 markets active 10h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$257 (+1%) realized +$260 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$327est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,000
7 days+$437
14 days+$1,095
30 days+$1,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$2,085
other 8% −$1,190
world 2% −$341
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 48% -7.5%
≤30d 32 +7.4% -2.8% 53% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 39 +3.8% -6.1% 51% 49% -7.2%
all 40 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 48% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 48% -7.2%
10% -15.2% 48% -16.1%
15% -23.4% 48% -24.2%
20% -30.9% 48% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$712) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$520 vs −$492 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$260
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$327
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage155d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $301 $298 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $310 +$490 +158%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $507 −$499 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,095 +$761 +70%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $257 −$252 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $627 −$616 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $866 +$634 +73%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $461 −$452 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,505 +$934 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $715 −$704 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $738 +$662 +90%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $717 −$707 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $709 −$697 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $701 −$690 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $738 −$728 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $776 +$724 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $791 −$780 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 +$492 +97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $640 +$760 +119%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $696 +$704 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $709 +$9 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $712 +$844 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $736 −$736 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $597 +$403 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $687 +$830 +121%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $457 −$341 -74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $866 −$855 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $508 +$492 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $152 +$148 +97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $397 −$392 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$76 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $89 +$211 +238%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $477 +$523 +109%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $240 −$237 -99%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $657 −$650 -99%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $667 −$434 -65%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $300 +$300 +100%
BNB Up or Down on May 11? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 18 $256 +$244 +95%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $299 +$241 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 17 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $306 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $310 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $507 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $1,856 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $257 18h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $1,095 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $627 23h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $461 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $866 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $1,505 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $715 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $738 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $717 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $709 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $701 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $738 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $791 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $776 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $640 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $719 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $709 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $696 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $712 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $372 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $206 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $8 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $16 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.60 · official $297.60 (match) · 97 history records