Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83a0…1640 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate49%28W / 29L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$5
other 42% +$6
sports 4% +$4
politics 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 35% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 0% -9.8%
all 57 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 7% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 7% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses28 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage530d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $75 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $89 −$9 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $65 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $42 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $82 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $109 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $16 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $18 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $29 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $272 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $541 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $271 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $16 −$4 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $3 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 07 $17 +$1 +6%
La Salle vs. George Mason Mar 05 $2 $0 -8%
Colgate vs. Boston Univ. Mar 05 $4 +$4 +104%
Central Michigan vs. Ball State Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
San José State vs. Colorado State Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will another NBA All Star get traded before the deadline? Mar 04 $16 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $18 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $20 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $20 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $18 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $22 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $16 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $38 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $9 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $18 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $13 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $16 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records