Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83a4…9c70 crypto 1240 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,233 (+1%) realized +$1,235 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%858W / 381L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$200
14 days+$315
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$699
other 19% +$253
crypto 4% −$23
politics 3% +$74
finance 3% +$173
economics 1% +$10
world 1% +$16
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.1% -7.6% 97% 3% -7.9%
≤30d 75 +1.4% -8.3% 99% 1% -8.3%
≤90d 231 +1.0% -8.7% 98% 2% -8.5%
all 1239 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 50% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 50% -17.2%
15% -26.5% 4% -25.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,235
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses858 / 381
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1239 / 1240
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 98¢ 50¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 27 $267 +$17 +6%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 26 $418 +$4 +1%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $124 +$1 +1%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 26 $184 +$2 +1%
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals Jun 26 $4 $0 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $396 +$4 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $119 +$1 +1%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 25 $882 +$82 +9%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $610 +$6 +1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $197 +$2 +1%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1,823 +$18 +1%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 23 $369 +$3 +1%
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $990 +$9 +1%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $2,723 +$27 +1%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $652 +$11 +2%
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? Jun 22 $125 +$3 +3%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $66 +$1 +1%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $111 +$1 +1%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $114 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $89 +$1 +1%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $185 −$7 -4%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $13 $0 +1%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $757 +$8 +1%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $102 +$1 +1%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 +$2 +21%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,091 +$12 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $542 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $612 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $644 +$7 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $409 +$2 +1%
Alex Freeman: 1+ goals Jun 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Jonathan David: 3+ goals Jun 19 $206 +$2 +1%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 19 $436 +$8 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,151 +$10 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $59 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $235 +$2 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $621 +$6 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $267 1h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $248 25h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $170 25h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $124 26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $396 26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $10 26h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $178 26h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $6 26h
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4 26h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $119 29h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $359 2d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $228 2d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $77 2d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $204 2d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $14 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $114 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $460 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $197 3d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,823 3d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $369 3d
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $999 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $316 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $142 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $532 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $2.50 (match) · 3500 history records