Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x83a5…4355 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%37W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$6
crypto 7% +$1
other 3% −$1
tech 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.1% -9.5% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses37 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage526d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $25 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 10 $28 $0 -1%
Will Tony Finau win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $34 $0 -1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fiorentina win the Serie A? Mar 18 $4,989 −$5 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $435 - 440b on February 28? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Feb 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Jan 28 $14 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 18 $17 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 30d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 93d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 123d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 149d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $29 151d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $16 182d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 183d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $14 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $30 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $30 243d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 274d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 301d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 302d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 303d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 99¢ $23 335d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 395d
TikTok sale announced before May? BUY No 99¢ $5 426d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $3 428d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.33 · official $45.33 (match) · 106 history records