Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83a7…bb13 sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,939 (-9%) realized −$9,935 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate46%74W / 86L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$655per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$304
7 days−$64
14 days+$515
30 days+$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$106
economics 37% +$21
sports 12% −$9,908
other 1% +$5
world 0% +$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -17.4% -25.3% 34% 34% -11.5%
≤30d 125 -15.7% -23.8% 35% 34% +4.2%
≤90d 132 -15.6% -23.6% 38% 33% -71.5%
all 160 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 27% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 27% -17.6%
10% -28.5% 26% -25.5%
15% -35.4% 26% -32.7%
20% -41.7% 26% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$140 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$9,935
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses74 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions10
Markets (closed)160 / 170
History coverage194d
Avg bet$655
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 32¢ 32¢ $141 $139 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? No 56¢ 56¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 40¢ 42¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? No 42¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? No 37¢ 36¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 36¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals Yes 14¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $8 +$13 +172%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $9 +$12 +124%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $6 +$15 +238%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $22 +$20 +93%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $18 +$24 +129%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$22 +114%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $11 +$10 +90%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$11 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $18 +$3 +17%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $8 +$13 +158%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $7 +$14 +197%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $7 +$14 +206%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -99%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $218 +$183 +84%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $24 +$18 +73%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $21 $0 -2%
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $13 +$8 +57%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $23 +$40 +172%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $19 −$18 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $12 −$11 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $18 −$17 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $14 +$28 +197%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$27 +173%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $22 +$20 +90%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$19 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $18 −$17 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $17 −$16 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $57 1h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $8 1h
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $9 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $12 1h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY No 37¢ $8 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $144 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 42¢ $9 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 26¢ $6 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 22h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 22h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 22h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 26¢ $6 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $10 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $13 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 26¢ $6 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $11 22h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $7 22h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $8 22h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $8 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 33¢ $7 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $3 22h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $9 22h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 22h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $6 22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 11¢ $2 22h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $11 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.16 · official $255.16 (match) · 464 history records