Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83ac…b3b6 crypto 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$490 (-5%) realized −$488 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%162W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$25
14 days−$98
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$727
world 3% −$65
politics 1% −$32
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 48% -11.7%
≤30d 150 -13.0% -21.3% 47% 43% -16.0%
≤90d 343 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 39% -17.4%
all 343 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 39% -17.4%
10% -30.6% 34% -25.3%
15% -37.3% 27% -32.5%
20% -43.5% 22% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$488
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses162 / 181
Open positions1
Markets (closed)343 / 344
History coverage91d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 29¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $44 −$12 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$32 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $69 −$36 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$25 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$57 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$53 +502%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$18 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$18 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$18 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$19 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$10 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.10 · official $8.10 (match) · 853 history records